Ham Radio Stagflation

Are we experiencing Ham Radio Stagflation?

It seems that “prices for capabilities” have risen while demand seems to have tapered off.

Quick qualified pricing examples:

• Power Amps – 1.5kW of HF amplification, solid state – ten years ago would have been perhaps $3,000-3,500ish  The 2024 pricing would be more around $5,000 +/-
• Coax – semi-hardline (Belden 9913) ran $1.75/LF ten years ago now runs $3.15/LF (if you can get it)
• Transceivers (basic entry) ran about $650 new (street) ten years ago to about $1200 (street) now

As products evolve and the purchasing parity of the dollar also moved over the ten years, these price comparisons are only to get a “feel” that it takes a bit more – perhaps about 40-50% more when features & inflation are equalized out – to get the same capabilities today as ten years ago.

We need to spend more to get roughly the same things.

The overall demand for ham radio products hasn’t risen as much as the costs, and per some vendors is not growing at all.

Often costs are driven by more purchasers interested in making a purchase than available product supply.

It seems our increases, once inflation is factored out, are greatly pass-thru cost escalations, tax/tariff/regulatory costs, and overhead absorption issues.

Raw materials are up.  Everything from the metals (copper was 20-25% less ten years ago, plastic indexes are 220% up in the same period) to fasteners.  Labor costs nearly doubled in ten years and to transport (delivery) costs rose more than 60%.

The products we would like to buy include more direct and indirect taxes, tariffs and regulatory costs.  On a more personal level the 5% sales tax in my state’s biggest metro creeped in increments to 7.9%.

Overhead absorption issues are how the costs of business are allocated to each purchase – like if you go to you favorite diner for a breakfast and coffee, some of what you are charged goes toward the overhead of insurance, facilities, utilities, property taxes, staff… and so on.  If less people come to buy breakfast more overhead cost falls to each meal sold.

We are perhaps in the too-few diners situation in ham radio, where the “overhead” has to be allocated to a smaller number of purchases.

So the number of purchases is stable or falling, while pricing is rising – some of the major components of that bugaboo  Stagflation.

Actually we should recognized that this is a general situation – the same burrito that used to cost you $8 is now around $11-12, the fancy SUV that cost around $60K is now over $90k.

What happens?

• First, get used to it.  Stagflation is considered one of the most challenging difficulties in managing an economy.
• Second, recognize that things have changed.  It is unlikely we will get back to where they once were.
• Third, recognize that things will keep changing.  Whether for better or worse, more change is to follow.

There doesn’t seem to a good way to predict what will happen, other than the likelihood of returning to the old normal is very very small.

73

Steve
K9ZW