What you know and what you don’t know in terms of Virus Preparations

If you are looking for a reference site on the Coronavirus, this is not it.  Rather I’d like to discuss what you know and what you don’t know.

Yup, I’m including you the reader in my limited knowledge.

First you know that you have a bad case of Normalcy Bias, and have it all the time.  Kind of comes with the territory of being human.  We like to think things are known, work the say way every time, and no matter what we will be okay.

Then you know that a very large part of the Virus information we are given is incomplete and inaccurate.  China didn’t go into large scale lockdown and shut down its economy over some 80,000 ill folks that they claim are all okay now and a 2.1% claimed death rate among the ill.  They didn’t mobilize to built instant-hospitals and weld the door shut on people in their apartments without a reason greater than what they have shared.  When our own government creates a Whitehouse led taskforce meeting daily and allocates $8-billion as an initial virus fund you know something more is afoot than a bad case of the flu going around. 

You know that when you look at what governments are doing, they are really concerned and are posturing to help the citizenry through some difficult times.  

We shouldn’t be surprised as this is why we have a government – to do the things for society through an aggregate action that society in a granular form cannot/will not be able to do.  

You also know that the consequences of being under prepared are awful and possibly terminal.  And that the costs of being prepared but not needing your preparedness is finite, more of an expense shifting to today what you would spend over time, and a lot more fun to complain about in hindsight if not needed.  There might not be any personal hindsight if your preparations are inadequate.  

What you don’t know is exactly how this will all play out.  While suspicious that at least some of the government knows more than they are saying, you neither know what they might not be able to tell us, nor do you know stuff that they may not even know.

You also know that no information should never be a license to make stuff up, but again our normalcy bias encourages us to say “its just another bad flu” because we don’t have more information.  We don’t have a freaking clue that it is just another bad flu.  What we do know is it isn’t good and kills more folk than we would expect.  

You also know that you haven’t done the math to evaluate it.  We tend to shy away from complex math, and there are some scientific grade analysis out there you can dig into.  But trust me, doing simple division of the number reported dead by the number of cases reported isn’t going to get to a useful figure.  That sort of simple math can only be done in hindsight once the virus is a non-factor and all numbers are in.  

As hams we know we have a special place being another type of communicators that can encourage and help people by getting useful correct information out.  What we don’t know is how much damage spreading misinformation could cause.  In the case of South Korea it is said that one person who broke quarantine resulted in many hundreds of deaths and thousands of people ill.  And that isn’t over yet either.

Interesting times.  

Be flexible, be clear what you know and don’t know, understand your normalcy bias, keep clean and stay healthy.


GL & 73





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